📡1,919+ NCAA games tracked† · 6,017+ WIAA games · Updated daily

NCAA & WIAA Basketball Forecasts
We Show Our Work.

BBMI generates independent efficiency rankings, predictive spreads, and win probabilities for every game — no gut feelings, no hot takes, no retroactive edits. Just the model.

† NCAA record includes only picks where BBMI and Vegas lines differ by ≥ 2 pts. The Vegas line is captured at a specific point in time — lines routinely move 1–2 points between open and tip-off, and can vary by a point or more across different books. A difference smaller than 2 pts is within normal market noise and is excluded.

📊 Explore Team RankingsView full pick history →
🏆 New Feature

WIAA & NCAA Tournament Probabilities

BBMI's bracket simulation model shows every team's probability of advancing — WIAA Sectionals through State Championship, and NCAA rounds through the title game.

🆕 Official 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is live! BBMI probabilities updated with all 68 teams and matchups.

🆕 WIAA brackets include official state tournament matchups with WIAA-released seedings.

View WIAA State Odds →View NCAA Bracket & Probabilities →🏀 Bracket Challenge →

What BBMI Measures

📐
Tempo-Free Efficiency
Offensive and defensive efficiency per 100 possessions, adjusted for pace — isolating true team quality from schedule variation.
🗓️
Strength of Schedule
Every win and loss is weighted by opponent quality. A 20-win team in a weak conference isn't the same as one battle-tested in a power league.
🎯
Shooting & Ball Security
Three-point rate, free throw efficiency, and assist-to-turnover ratio — the stats that separate good teams from dangerous tournament teams.
📊
Predictive Line Generation
BBMI generates its own spread for every game, independent of Vegas. The gap between the two lines is the model's edge signal.
👋 New here? BBMI is a data-driven basketball model — transparent, documented, and independently tracked. See how it works before you subscribe.How it works →
56.9%
Beat Vegas
Across 1,919 picks
9.1%
ROI
Flat $100/game — not cherry-picked
1,919
Tracked
Public log. No retroactive edits.
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Today's Picks

Daily game picks with BBMI vs Vegas line comparison and win probabilities. 72.9% win rate on high-edge plays.

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Team Rankings

Model-driven team ratings and efficiency metrics.

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Picks Model Accuracy

Historical ROI and BBMI vs Vegas lines tracking.

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BBMI vs Vegas: Winner Accuracy

Head-to-head comparison of BBMI and Vegas outright winner prediction accuracy.

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Bracket Pulse

Live March Madness tournament seeding projections and performance probabilities.

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Tournament Probabilities

Monte Carlo simulation odds for every team reaching the Round of 32, Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and winning the championship.

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Today's Top Plays

✓Free preview — subscribers see all picks with full edge analysis
AwayHomeVegasBBMIEdgePick
South Alabama
Auburn
-18.5-5.513.0South Alabama
#1 PICK🔒 13.0 pt edge — subscriber only
Navy
Wake Forest
-12.5-5.57.0Navy
#2 PICK🔒 7.0 pt edge — subscriber only
Top 2 picks locked · historically 69.5% accurate at this edge(95% CI: 63.2%–75.2%)
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Sam Houston State logoSam Houston State(#105)New Mexico logoNew Mexico(#37)-11.5-4.57.0Sam Houston State logoSam Houston State(#105)
Win rate climbs to 69.5% (95% CI: 63.2%–75.2%) when BBMI edge ≥ 6.5 pts across 223 picks · Past results are not indicative of future performance

Showing highest-edge game only. Subscribe to see all picks →

About the Model

BBMI blends tempo-free efficiency metrics, opponent adjustments, and predictive simulations to evaluate team strength and forecast game outcomes. Built on quantitative methods, not intuition — efficiency metrics, opponent adjustments, and predictive simulations that don't care who the talking heads favor.

Read the methodology →

Today's Picks

Daily game picks from BBMI's edge model — BBMI spread vs. Vegas with win probabilities for every game. 72.9% win rate on high-edge plays across 118+ tracked games.

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📐The honest bottom line

No model wins every bet. The goal is to clear the 52.4% breakeven threshold consistently over hundreds of games — and to bet more when the edge is largest. BBMI's documented record on high-edge picks shows this is achievable, but it requires discipline, patience, and realistic expectations. If someone promises you 70%+ win rates on every pick, they're selling something other than math. Read more about our approach →