🏆 NCAA Tournament Model

NCAA Tournament Probabilities

BBMI's bracket simulation model — probability of each team advancing through each round by region.

🗂️ View Full Bracket →🏀 Today's Picks →

Full bracket probabilities are on the Bracket Pulse page · Each team's complete odds are on their team page

Showing: Win Championship Probability

Top 10 teams per region, ranked by BBMI Monte Carlo simulation

Top 25 — Win Championship

All regions

🥇

Arizona

West · Seed #1

19.4%

2

Michigan

Midwest · Seed #1

17.9%

3

Duke

East · Seed #1

14.8%

4

Florida

South · Seed #1

4.1%

5

Purdue

West · Seed #2

4.1%

6

Illinois

South · Seed #3

3.7%

7

Michigan State

East · Seed #3

3.5%

8

Iowa State

Midwest · Seed #2

3.3%

9

Nebraska

South · Seed #4

2.9%

10

St. John's

East · Seed #5

2.1%

11

Gonzaga

West · Seed #3

1.9%

12

Virginia

Midwest · Seed #3

1.6%

13

Houston

South · Seed #2

1.6%

14

Vanderbilt

South · Seed #5

1.5%

15

Arkansas

West · Seed #4

1.5%

16

UConn

East · Seed #2

1.1%

17

Kansas

East · Seed #4

1.1%

18

UCLA

East · Seed #7

1.0%

19

Saint Louis

Midwest · Seed #9

1.0%

20

Tennessee

Midwest · Seed #6

0.9%

21

Alabama

Midwest · Seed #4

0.8%

22

Saint Mary's

South · Seed #7

0.8%

23

North Carolina

South · Seed #6

0.7%

24

VCU

South · Seed #11

0.7%

25

Louisville

East · Seed #6

0.6%

Probabilities generated by BBMI Monte Carlo simulation using team efficiency ratings and seeding. Updated daily.

Full bracket probabilities by region →Today's picks →