🏆 WIAA State Tournament Model

State Tournament Probabilities

BBMI's bracket simulation model — probability of each team advancing to Sectionals, qualifying for State, and winning the championship by division.

🗂️ View Full State Brackets →🏫 Browse Team Pages →

Full bracket probabilities by region are on the State Brackets page · Each team's complete tournament odds are on their individual team page

Showing: State Champion Probability
Top 10 teams per division, ranked by BBMI simulation model
Division 1
71 teams
🥇
Wisconsin Lutheran
Region 4 · WIAA #1 · BBMI #1
63.8%
2
De Pere
Region 2 · WIAA #1 · BBMI #2
17.3%
3
Appleton North
Region 1 · WIAA #2 · BBMI #3
10.8%
4
Madison Memorial
Region 3 · WIAA #1 · BBMI #6
8.2%
5
Appleton East
Region 1 · WIAA #18 · BBMI #70
<0.1%
6
Appleton West
Region 1 · WIAA #14 · BBMI #62
<0.1%
7
Chippewa Falls
Region 1 · WIAA #17 · BBMI #64
<0.1%
8
D.C. Everest
Region 1 · WIAA #1 · BBMI #10
<0.1%
9
Eau Claire Memorial
Region 1 · WIAA #12 · BBMI #57
<0.1%
10
Eau Claire North
Region 1 · WIAA #13 · BBMI #56
<0.1%
Division 2
89 teams
🥇
Slinger
Region 2B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #1
47.8%
2
Whitefish Bay
Region 4A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #2
29.6%
3
McFarland
Region 3B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #5
15.0%
4
West Salem
Region 1B · WIAA #4 · BBMI #9
7.6%
5
Antigo
Region 1A · WIAA #10 · BBMI #86
<0.1%
6
Lakeland
Region 1A · WIAA #8 · BBMI #71
<0.1%
7
Medford
Region 1A · WIAA #5 · BBMI #52
<0.1%
8
Menomonie
Region 1A · WIAA #3 · BBMI #27
<0.1%
9
Merrill
Region 1A · WIAA #6 · BBMI #57
<0.1%
10
New Richmond
Region 1A · WIAA #4 · BBMI #40
<0.1%
Division 3
100 teams
🥇
Seymour
Region 2A · WIAA #2 · BBMI #2
50.1%
2
Lake Mills
Region 3B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #1
42.1%
3
Racine St. Catherine's
Region 4B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #7
7.0%
4
Saint Croix Central
Region 1A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #32
0.8%
5
Amery
Region 1A · WIAA #7 · BBMI #51
<0.1%
6
Ashland
Region 1A · WIAA #8 · BBMI #57
<0.1%
7
Baldwin-Woodville
Region 1A · WIAA #11 · BBMI #82
<0.1%
8
Barron
Region 1A · WIAA #12 · BBMI #75
<0.1%
9
Ellsworth
Region 1A · WIAA #6 · BBMI #37
<0.1%
10
Hayward
Region 1A · WIAA #9 · BBMI #35
<0.1%
Division 4
98 teams
🥇
Milwaukee Juneau
Region 4B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #1
44.1%
2
Bonduel
Region 2B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #8
34.4%
3
Regis
Region 1B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #9
18.6%
4
Cambridge
Region 3A · WIAA #2 · BBMI #24
2.9%
5
Boyceville
Region 1A · WIAA #11 · BBMI #74
<0.1%
6
Cameron
Region 1A · WIAA #10 · BBMI #46
<0.1%
7
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser
Region 1A · WIAA #3 · BBMI #41
<0.1%
8
Clear Lake
Region 1A · WIAA #2 · BBMI #23
<0.1%
9
Colfax
Region 1A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #32
<0.1%
10
Cumberland
Region 1A · WIAA #13 · BBMI #75
<0.1%
Division 5
126 teams
🥇
Reedsville
Region 2B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #1
39.6%
2
Prentice
Region 1B · WIAA #3 · BBMI #2
38.9%
3
Southwestern
Region 3B · WIAA #3 · BBMI #11
11.1%
4
Sheboygan Lutheran
Region 4B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #12
10.4%
5
Bayfield
Region 1A · WIAA #9 · BBMI #68
<0.1%
6
Birchwood
Region 1A · WIAA #10 · BBMI #89
<0.1%
7
Bruce
Region 1A · WIAA #7 · BBMI #56
<0.1%
8
Drummond
Region 1A · WIAA #2 · BBMI #6
<0.1%
9
Eau Claire Immanuel Lutheran
Region 1A · WIAA #11 · BBMI #91
<0.1%
10
Frederic
Region 1A · WIAA #5 · BBMI #38
<0.1%

Probabilities generated by BBMI bracket simulation using team efficiency ratings and seeding. Updated daily.

Full bracket probabilities by region →Individual team tournament odds →